A value bet is a selection whose odds are higher than the chance of it happening justifies. If a team has a 50% chance, fair odds are evens (2.00). A bookmaker offering 11/10 (2.10) is paying more than fair, and over a very large number of bets that gap is where the profit would come from.

How does ArtificialAcca find value bets?

We compare the best price found across bookmakers with our model's probability. The edge is the model probability multiplied by the odds, minus one, and a leg appears here when that edge is 3% or more, the odds are between 1.30 and 6.00, and the kick-off is in the next 48 hours.

Does a value bet mean it will win?

No. A value pick at 55% still loses about 45 times in 100, and a long run of losers is normal. Value is about the price, not the result. These are probabilities, not guarantees, and nothing here is a tip to stake more than you can afford to lose.

Why must the model and the market roughly agree?

If our probability is more than 8 percentage points away from the bookmakers' margin-free consensus, the gap is more likely to be something the model has missed, such as a late injury or a rotated side, than a real mispricing. We only list legs where the two broadly agree, so the edge comes from the price rather than from a wild opinion.

How often does this page update, and are the odds still available?

The board refreshes about every 30 minutes. Football odds move quickly, so check the price at your bookmaker before you bet: if it has shortened, the edge may have gone. Plus members also see which bookmaker was offering the best price at the last update.

Value Bets Today: Football Prices Above the Model's Fair Odds

Football legs over the next 48 hours where the best price we can find is above what our model says is fair. Sorted by edge, with the model's chance and the fair odds alongside the bookmaker price. Probabilities, not guarantees.

What “value” means here

Every price contains a chance. Odds of 2/1 (3.00) say one in three; if we think the true chance is 38%, fair odds are about 13/5 (2.63) and 2/1 is a little short, while 11/4 (3.75) would be generous. Value is the second case: the price is above the model's fair odds.

Value does not make a leg likely to win, and it does not make an acca safe. A 40% chance at a value price still loses six times in ten. Over hundreds of bets, prices above fair can add up; over a weekend, anything can happen. Treat it as a way of choosing between legs, not a promise, and keep stakes small.

Want to build an acca from these? The generator has a Value mode that favours the legs where the price beats the model, and the acca calculator shows what they pay. Prices are also converted in the odds converter.

Value bets FAQ

What is a value bet?: A value bet is a selection whose odds are higher than the chance of it happening justifies. If a team has a 50% chance, fair odds are evens (2.00). A bookmaker offering 11/10 (2.10) is paying more than fair, and over a very large number of bets that gap is where the profit would come from.
How does ArtificialAcca find value bets?: We compare the best price found across bookmakers with our model's probability. The edge is the model probability multiplied by the odds, minus one, and a leg appears here when that edge is 3% or more, the odds are between 1.30 and 6.00, and the kick-off is in the next 48 hours.
Does a value bet mean it will win?: No. A value pick at 55% still loses about 45 times in 100, and a long run of losers is normal. Value is about the price, not the result. These are probabilities, not guarantees, and nothing here is a tip to stake more than you can afford to lose.
Why must the model and the market roughly agree?: If our probability is more than 8 percentage points away from the bookmakers' margin-free consensus, the gap is more likely to be something the model has missed, such as a late injury or a rotated side, than a real mispricing. We only list legs where the two broadly agree, so the edge comes from the price rather than from a wild opinion.
How often does this page update, and are the odds still available?: The board refreshes about every 30 minutes. Football odds move quickly, so check the price at your bookmaker before you bet: if it has shortened, the edge may have gone. Plus members also see which bookmaker was offering the best price at the last update.

18+ only. ArtificialAcca shows probabilities, not guarantees: accumulators lose far more often than single bets, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free support is available at BeGambleAware.org.

Value Bets Today: Football Prices Above the Model's Fair Odds

Top value pick

Sat 7 Nov 15:00 UK time · Premier League
Arsenal v Hull City
Under 1.5 goals
Model 20%Market 18%Fair odds 31/8 (4.88)Value +23.0%
5/1
6.00

Odds are the best price found at the last update and can move. Times show in your timezone once the page loads; the default is UK time.

29 more value picks in the next 48 hours

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More analysis, not better odds of winning. 18+, BeGambleAware.org.

What “value” means here

Value bets FAQ

What is a value bet?: A value bet is a selection whose odds are higher than the chance of it happening justifies. If a team has a 50% chance, fair odds are evens (2.00). A bookmaker offering 11/10 (2.10) is paying more than fair, and over a very large number of bets that gap is where the profit would come from.
How does ArtificialAcca find value bets?: We compare the best price found across bookmakers with our model's probability. The edge is the model probability multiplied by the odds, minus one, and a leg appears here when that edge is 3% or more, the odds are between 1.30 and 6.00, and the kick-off is in the next 48 hours.
Does a value bet mean it will win?: No. A value pick at 55% still loses about 45 times in 100, and a long run of losers is normal. Value is about the price, not the result. These are probabilities, not guarantees, and nothing here is a tip to stake more than you can afford to lose.
Why must the model and the market roughly agree?: If our probability is more than 8 percentage points away from the bookmakers' margin-free consensus, the gap is more likely to be something the model has missed, such as a late injury or a rotated side, than a real mispricing. We only list legs where the two broadly agree, so the edge comes from the price rather than from a wild opinion.
How often does this page update, and are the odds still available?: The board refreshes about every 30 minutes. Football odds move quickly, so check the price at your bookmaker before you bet: if it has shortened, the edge may have gone. Plus members also see which bookmaker was offering the best price at the last update.