4-fold, our pick for the day
- · Championship
Portsmouth
Stoke City1.40
Over 1.5 goalsGoals over/under
Model 72%Fair +0.6%62Why this legHide reasoning
- Bookmakers price this at 69%
- Season goal averages point to 1.8-1.5 (3.3 total)
- Model sees +1% edge at 1.40
- · La Liga
Malaga
Racing Santander1.46
Malaga or drawDouble chance
Model 69%Fair +0.4%61Why this legHide reasoning
- Bookmakers price this at 66%
- Season goal averages point to 2.3-1.4 (3.7 total)
- Model sees 0% edge at 1.46
- · Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg1.29
Over 2.5 goalsGoals over/under
Model 78%Fair +0.3%67Why this legHide reasoning
- Bookmakers price this at 75%
- Season goal averages point to 3.6-1.5 (5.1 total)
- Model sees 0% edge at 1.29
- · Premier League
Arsenal
Hull City1.68
Under 3.5 goalsGoals over/under
Model 62%Value +4.2%52Why this legHide reasoning
- Bookmakers price this at 59%
- Season goal averages point to 1.8-0.8 (2.5 total)
- Model sees +4% edge at 1.68
Combined odds
4.43
Chance (4 legs)
1 in 4
24%
Expected value
+5.6%
per 1 staked