Premier League ·
Manchester United meet Aston Villa in the Premier League. Our model gives Manchester United a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 32%. Aston Villa average 1.0 goals away; Manchester United concede 1.8 at home. Season goal averages point to 1.5-1.4 (2.9 total). Manchester United average 1.5 goals at home; Aston Villa concede 1.5 away. Both teams to score is rated at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. These are probabilities, not guarantees, and prices can move before kick-off.
Over 1.5 goals
Model 80% · fair 1.25
1.17
Manchester United or Aston Villa (no draw)
Model 75% · fair 1.34
1.28
Manchester United or draw
Model 68% · fair 1.47
1.40
Aston Villa to win
Model 32% · fair 3.12
3.30
Value +5.8%
Value is model probability x odds - 1. See every match on the value bets board.
| Selection | Model | Fair | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to winShort -8.0% | 43% | 2.34 | 2.15 |
| DrawShort -4.5% | 25% | 3.98 | 3.80 |
| Aston Villa to winValue +5.8% | 32% | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| Selection | Model | Fair |
|---|
18+ only. ArtificialAcca shows probabilities, not guarantees: accumulators lose far more often than single bets, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
| Best |
|---|
| Manchester United or drawShort -4.6% | 68% | 1.47 | 1.40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or Aston Villa (no draw)Short -4.2% | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Draw or Aston VillaShort -4.8% | 57% | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| Selection | Model | Fair | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to scoreShort -7.9% | 61% | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to scoreFair +1.4% | 39% | 2.59 | 2.63 |
| Selection | Model | Fair | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goalsShort -6.8% | 80% | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goalsFair +1.5% | 20% | 4.93 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goalsShort -7.7% | 59% | 1.70 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goalsShort -2.0% | 41% | 2.43 | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 goalsShort -10.8% | 37% | 2.67 | 2.38 |
| Under 3.5 goalsShort -1.9% | 63% | 1.60 | 1.57 |
Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability. Best is the best price found at the last update and can move before kick-off.
