This page lists the next Primeira Liga fixtures that ArtificialAcca has bookmaker prices for, the selection the model rates most likely in each match, and a ready-made three-leg Primeira Liga acca built from the strongest of them. Primeira Liga is part of Portugal football, and every pick is a probability estimate, not a prediction you can bank.
Over 1.5 goals
Estrela v Benfica
Model 85% · 1.15
Draw or SC Braga
Rio Ave v SC Braga
Model 82% · 1.16
Under 3.5 goals
Santa Clara v GIL Vicente
Model 81% · 1.20
Combined odds 1.60 · Model probability 56%
Built from the most likely pick in each of the three strongest fixtures below. Odds are the best price found and can change.
Under 3.5 goals1.26 · model 78%
Bookmakers price this at 76%
Famalicao or Arouca (no draw)1.37 · model 71%
Bookmakers price this at 70%
Over 1.5 goals1.34 · model 73%
Bookmakers price this at 71%
Nacional or Academico Viseu (no draw)1.36 · model 73%
Bookmakers price this at 71%
Alverca or draw1.22 · model 76%
Bookmakers price this at 79%
Under 3.5 goals1.33 · model 75%
Bookmakers price this at 72%
Sporting CP to win1.19 · model 80%
Bookmakers price this at 82%
Over 2.5 goals1.45 · model 66%
Bookmakers price this at 67%
Over 1.5 goals1.31 · model 75%
Bookmakers price this at 75%
Estoril or Maritimo (no draw)1.32 · model 73%
Bookmakers price this at 73%
Under 3.5 goals1.20 · model 81%
Bookmakers price this at 80%
Santa Clara or draw1.32 · model 73%
Bookmakers price this at 73%
Draw or FC Porto1.20 · model 80%
Bookmakers price this at 81%
Under 3.5 goals1.40 · model 72%
Bookmakers price this at 70%
Over 1.5 goals1.15 · model 85%
Bookmakers price this at 84%
Benfica to win1.28 · model 75%
Bookmakers price this at 77%
Draw or SC Braga1.16 · model 82%
Bookmakers price this at 84%
Over 1.5 goals1.27 · model 77%
Bookmakers price this at 76%
For each Primeira Liga match we collect prices across the 1X2, double chance, both teams to score and over/under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals markets, remove the bookmaker margin to get a fair market probability, and blend that with a goals model built from each side's scoring record. The result is a model probability for every selection, shown next to the best available decimal odds.
Picks on this page are ranked by model probability, within odds of 1.15 to 4.00 so that a leg is neither trivially short nor a long shot. The edge figure (model probability multiplied by odds, minus one) shows where the model and the market disagree; a high probability at short odds can still have no edge.
Primeira Liga is one of the most heavily priced competitions we cover, which means plenty of bookmakers and a sharp market consensus to anchor the model. That makes the probabilities more dependable, but it also means obvious favourites are priced tightly, so the value in a Primeira Liga acca usually comes from choosing the right market rather than the right team.
Matchdays in Portugal football are not all equal: fixture congestion, international breaks and end-of-season incentives all change how predictable a round of games is. Weigh the model's probabilities against what you know about team news.
Keep it short. Combined probability is the product of each leg: five legs at 70% each land together about 17% of the time, and three legs at 70% about 34%. Every leg you add multiplies the odds but divides your chance of winning.
Use one selection per match, since two legs from the same game are correlated and the bookmaker's acca price already accounts for that. Mix markets, and use the results page to see how ArtificialAcca's own accas have actually performed.
More acca tips: BTTS acca · Over 2.5 goals acca · Over 1.5 goals acca · Under 2.5 goals acca · Double chance acca · Home win acca · all acca tips.
More leagues: all acca tips by league.
18+ only. ArtificialAcca shows probabilities, not guarantees: accumulators lose far more often than single bets, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
